Winds of Change in Pakistan

Uptil the beginning of the judicial crisis in March 2007, it was generally believed in Pakistan that the political allies of the President Pervez Musharraf would comfortably bag a majority of seats in the Elections 2007, expected to be held for the federal and provincial legislatures in the second half of the current year. It was generally assumed that the elections would be engineered, as usual, to lend support to the candidates of the political allies of the president to land into the legislatures.

Come March 2007 and the scenario began to change swiftly and fiercely. The refusal of the Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry to quit, right in the face of the all-powerful president of Pakistan, gave a tremendous boost to the prestige of the office of the Chief Justice and made its incumbent an overnight public hero. The lawyers, for the first time in Pakistan, took the lead and beckoned the Chief Justice in his challenge to the authority of the president of Pakistan.

The whole nation appeared to take a swing to the side of the Chief Justice and thronged the roads, streets and places to accord him a rousing welcome wherever he drove in a motorcade. Within a short time of three months, he has become the most popular person in Pakistan, overshadowing the political leaders of all shades and shadows, in and out of the government.

The Chief Justice who has emerged as the people's saviour is practically bulldozing the stature and position of the president, by design or default, with every passing day. The political parties, by and large, must be happy that the Chief Justice is doing, on a large scale, what their leaders could not do on a small scale in causing major dents to the office of the president. The president appears to be well aware of the situation and, that is why, he insists on his election as the president for the next five years from the present federal and provincial legislatures while he is still in uniform as the Chief of Army Staff. He also probably knows for sure that he is safe in the presidency only with the military uniform on him. He may have visualized the possibility of the defeat of his major political ally, the PML (Q), in the event of free and fair elections.

Shaikh Rashid Ahmed, Minister for Railways, is reported to have said that the foundations of the society would be shaken if the elections were rigged. He might be right in his prophecy. It is generally believed that this time the voters will exercise their free will to elect their representatives and will thwart any attempts on the part of the government machinery or the candidates to use pressure tactics to win the elections. This would, in fact, be the repetition of the situation in the 1970's general elections.

The spectacular support of the people from all walks of life, income groups, men and women, young and old, and rural and urban centres may have come as a big surprise to those who have had no contact with the people at the grass-roots level to have felt their pulse earlier. But the truth of the matter is that the water was already boiling on the back burner.

There is a general perception among the people that during the past eight years of President Musharraf's rule, the rich became richer and the poor became poorer and the middle class squeezed in between. The gulf between the rich and the poor widened to alarming proportions. The benefit of the economic growth did not trickle down to the man on the street who continued to suffer the miseries of the rising prices, unemployment, under-employment, lack of basic amenities like water, electricity, gas, housing, transport, medical aid and education and the non-responsive political and bureaucratic administration.

Corruption, favoritism, nepotism, kickbacks, maladministration, ethnic strife, provincial disharmony, and political jugglery benefited the allies, political and non-political, of the president rather than the president himself. The president relied heavily on his political allies to keep himself in power. His frequent visits within and outside the country and the gatherings he addressed did not help in carving out the public image of a popular leader at home. He may be honest and sincere in his intentions, plans and programmes but he could not win the hearts and minds of the people at large. The people in general did not see a change for the better in their lives in any sphere be it economic, social, cultural, ethnic, political or government.

Price hike, corruption and maladministration top the list of the elements that go against the president. His political allies did not bother to improve upon their public image, contain the damage of bad government decisions, engage the people at the various levels of society, establish the channels of communication with the people, heed to the people's grievances, understand their needs and meet their genuine demands. The largest political ally, the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) did not bother to open its party offices at the village, tehsil, district and divisional levels to keep in touch with the people. It did not hold regular conventions, meetings and elections to involve the party workers and expand its membership or support base among the masses in the rural and urban centres alike. Eight years in power is a long time to penetrate deep down into the electorate and to strengthen the party base.

The president depended on his political allies, the army and the foreign powers to safeguard his interest and to protect his position in power. He did not become the popular leader of the masses nor his political allies probably thought he should. It was probably against the interests of his political allies to make him popular and independent of their support. This is exactly what happened to the previous military rulers i.e. President Ayub Khan and President Zia-ul-Haq who ruled the country for a decade or more but did not become popular leaders.

As the situation stands today, there is no national leader in the political arena in Pakistan. Mr. Nawaz Sharif and Ms Benazir Bhutto are exiled. Mr. Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League has largely been hijacked by the Pakistan Muslim League (Q). His public image and personal popularity can, however, place him and his candidates in an enviable position in the legislatures if he is allowed to come home and contest the elections. His principled stand that he would not strike a deal with a military ruler would also greatly help him in mobilizing the voters onto his side. Pakistan People's Party, though still more popular among the masses than its contemporaries, is presently devoid of leadership in its ranks. Without Ms Bhutto, PPP is a flock without a shepherd. Ms Bhutto has the charisma and the legacy of his father behind her to mobilize voters in her favour to a great extent throughout the country if she is allowed to return to Pakistan and contest the elections.

In the event of free and fair elections, Mr. Nawaz Sharif and Ms Benazir Bhutto are expected to bag almost equal number of seats in the federal legislature. The province of the Punjab, commanding the largest number of seats in the federal legislature, would be the battle field of Mr. Nawaz Sharif and Ms Bhutto and would play its traditional decisive role in the formation of the federal government by Mr. Nawaz Sharif or Ms Bhutto.

Muttahidda Majlis-e-Ammal (MMA)comprising religious groups is expected to assume a bargaining position in the formation of provincial government in NWFP and Balochistan. Muttahidda Qaumi Movement (MQM) is primarily a regional outfit with its vote-bank confined to the Urdu-speaking immigrants, settled in the urban centres of the province of Sindh, mostly in Karachi, Hyderabad and Sukkur. MQM was hitherto making inroads into other provinces to win the status of a national party but the May 12 carnage in Karachi severely tarnished its image and reputation inside and outside Pakistan. MQM is expected to hold on to its bargaining position in the formation of the provincial government of Sindh. A few splinter groups here and there would not matter much in the formation of provincial and federal legislatures. In the provincial legislature of the Punjab, there is going to be a neck to neck fight between Mr. Nawaz Sharif and Ms Bhutto.

Today, the most powerful person outside the government is probably the Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry who dominates the hearts and minds of the people at large. The lawyers movement and the media backing are not expected to relax or die out in the months ahead. The gusty winds are blowing and the dark clouds are hovering over the political landscape. And the situation is not likely to change in favour of the government any sooner.

What will be the future role of the Chief Justice can be any body's guess but it can be safely assumed that he will remain a power to reckon with for a long time to come. His popularity among the people would not make him the president of Pakistan but would drastically weaken the position of President Musharraf in the power game. All these years, it was the president who was calling the shots and his allies were nodding in his favour.

He still enjoys the unwavering backing of the top brass of the Army. He is still on good terms with President Bush. He is, however, losing the backing of the parliamentarians of the Pakistan Muslim League (Q). A political deal with Ms Bhutto might help the president but it might devastate the PML (Q) in free and fair elections. It is very likely that Ms Bhutto and Mr. Nawaz Sharif would go for electoral adjustments to ensure the success of their candidates and to uproot the
PML(Q).

The former captain of the Pakistan cricket team, Mr. Imran Khan who now heads a political party by the name of Tehrik-e-Insaf is one potential national leader in the making because of his bold, outspoken and determined composure. It will, however, take him a long time to become a major political force in the country.

It is desired that the visitors to this blog post their objective and balanced comments with due respect to the personalities and the political parties/groups. This is NOT a political forum to indulge in mudslinging. It is a forum to share views, opinions and thoughts as concerned citizens of Pakistan with or without political affiliations.

Seed Newsvine